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OPEC+ kept November production targets at September levels on 4 October. Unchanged quotas leave shipping, actual exports and infrastructure recovery at the centre of the inflation trade.
The IEA’s September 2026 Oil Market Report examines supply, demand, refining and trade. It is a dated research release, not a real-time oil quote. A spot price headline can reflect immediate logistics while the report describes a broader balance and forecast.
ESPO crude rose above $120 as Chinese refiners sought replacement barrels amid Middle East disruption and reduced Saudi availability.
Brent rebounded above $105 after the U.S. rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lifting yields and pushing gold lower as inflation risk returned.
ENERGY · GLOBAL MARKETS — Updated 15 September 2026. Brent pushed toward the high-$100s as Middle East supply risk persisted, helping drive the U.S. 10-year yield above 5% and reinforcing Fed hike expectations across global markets.
Houthi missile and drone attacks hit energy facilities across southern Saudi Arabia on September 8, sparking fires, temporarily halting some operations and injuring 73 people as Brent crude pushed toward $100.
Saudi Aramco’s 400,000-bpd Jazan refinery was hit again on September 7, turning the Gulf energy-risk thesis from rhetoric and shipping disruption into a fresh physical-infrastructure event as Brent presses toward $100.
OPEC+ is holding October production requirements at September levels, pausing six months of increases as U.S.-Iran fighting and Hormuz shipping risk keep crude, inflation and cross-asset volatility elevated.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline outage and a fresh Strait of Hormuz vessel attack deepen the Gulf oil shock, while Trump’s Iran/oil remarks add a new policy-risk layer to supply expectations.
Gold surged about 2% to roughly $4,473 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said cooling inflation could justify holding rates steady in September, pushing hike odds lower and reinforcing the metals rally.
